What Time Is It Supposed To Start Snowing Tonight – Forecasters are predicting 6 to 12 inches of snow across about half of New Jersey from a severe winter storm expected to hit the state Friday night into Saturday. The National Weather Service has released a winter storm watch. Wind gusts could also reach 40 mph.
UPDATE: Blizzard, winter storm warning issued. A massive snowstorm will bury the state in up to 18 inches of snow.
What Time Is It Supposed To Start Snowing Tonight
While there’s still a lot of uncertainty about how much snow will fall on New Jersey from the powerful winter storm, forecasters have begun to pinpoint when the snow will begin to fall.
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Light snow is possible Friday afternoon, but the main event is likely to begin between 7 and 8 p.m. coverage in South Jersey and from approximately midnight to 1 a.m. Saturday in northern New Jersey, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker said.
Snowfall of 1 inch or more per hour is possible, Walker said, although it will likely be short-lived as moderate snow is possible.
Overall, Walker said much of the Garden State will likely end up with 4 to 8 inches Saturday night, with higher amounts possible along the Jersey Shore, especially in South Jersey. Walker said the northwestern part of the state may only get 2 to 4 inches.
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A little snow could start falling early Friday in northwestern New Jersey, though the bulk of the winter storm is expected Friday night into Saturday.
It’s important to remember that the storm hasn’t actually formed yet, which makes a rough forecast more difficult than usual, Walker said.
“Some particles of energy are coming together,” Walker told Advance Media Friday afternoon. “We need to see where it forms and track the energy particles. If it goes further west, we will have (more) snow. If it crosses to the east, we will miss good snow.”
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Walker also noted that other possibilities are still being considered — the storm could move further into the Atlantic and bypass New Jersey. Or it could push closer to the Jersey shore and hit harder than expected.
The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch for 11 New Jersey counties from 7 p.m. Friday until 7 p.m. Saturday
According to the National Weather Service, northwest New Jersey could see snow Friday morning, though the bulk of the winter storm is expected Friday night into Saturday.
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The National Weather Service is calling for 4 to 9 inches of snow in Middlesex, Mercer, Salem, Gloucester, Camden, northwest Burlington and Cumberland counties, with gusts up to 40 mph. Atlantic, southeast Burlington, Cape May, Monmouth and Ocean will see 6 to 12 inches of snow with winds gusting to 45 mph, according to the weather service. Snow butterflies are also a concern on the Jersey Shore.
Late Thursday morning, the weather service issued a hazardous weather forecast for Somerset County, saying “accumulating snow and/or sleet may cause significant travel delays on Saturday.”
A hazardous weather forecast issued earlier for Bergen, Essex, Hudson Union and Passaic indicates the possibility of heavy snow and strong winds.
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NWS forecasters echoed their counterparts at AccuWeather.com in stressing that snowfall forecasts can change as the storm approaches.
“The forecast for snow totals from the storm remains uncertain, so stay tuned for the latest forecasts,” the weather service said.
If you purchase a product or register an account through one of the links on our site, we may receive compensation. Over the past 24 hours, forecast models are trending toward a significant accumulation of snow for southern, coastal, and possibly central New Jersey on Monday. . It may come as a surprise to most as the big holiday week approaches. Also, earlier our forecast was leaning towards snowfall rather than an outright headache.
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With more than half a foot of accumulation possible across the south and east, a winter storm watch has been issued for several New Jersey counties. Bundle up and get ready, this is a “South Jersey special” and New Jersey’s first real snowstorm of the season.
To start the forecast, Sunday will be a continuation of Saturday’s wet and wet weather. The heaviest rainfall so far is over an inch, mainly in areas of Mercer, Middlesex and Monmouth counties that fell Saturday night. We’ll add about a quarter of an inch to that total Sunday, with the best chance for isolated showers in the early afternoon.
Finally, a cold front will push coastal showers Sunday afternoon into the evening. (To be clear, any precipitation up to this point will be liquid, not frozen, normal rain.)
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As cooler, drier air arrived Sunday evening, the wind picked up a bit. The best gusts will likely be Sunday night, near 30+ mph.
And of course, temperatures will drop significantly from Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. We’ll go from a high near 60 degrees at noon to below zero around midnight. (Specifically, temperatures will drop below freezing around 8:00 PM in the Northwest and 4:00 AM on the South Coast.)
The most important piece of the puzzle is some of the energy that will travel along the frontal boundary to our south and east. The center of the storm system will move off the coast of North Carolina around noon Monday.
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That geography matters. Since the core of the storm will be far to the south, that means 1.) New Jersey will be in the cold, snowy part of the system, and 2.) we’ll miss the heaviest bands of rain.
Let’s break down the storm’s development by neighborhoods to give you an idea of how things will play out starting late Sunday evening:
— Midnight to 4 a.m. Monday… The first bands of rain arrived along southern and eastern New Jersey. There may be light rain or frost at first, then full snow by dawn (at the latest).
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-4 a.m. to 8 a.m. The bulk of the storm begins as a heavier snowpack settles into southern New Jersey. Visibility will decrease, crowding will begin.
-8 a.m. to noon…Heaviest precipitation time as snow bands may extend north of Interstate 195 and possibly Interstate 78.
—From noon to 4 p.m…. The peak of the thunderstorm ends. Snow will be more scattered and generally lighter, but may continue to accumulate slowly.
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– By 6 pm… All the snow will come off the coast. At night, the temperature will be unseasonably cold, around 20 degrees.
In other words, it’s mostly daytime snow. Bad news for commuters, especially in the southern part of the state.
Before I talk about the numbers, I want to mention three limiting factors that can have a big impact on how much snow reaches and “sticks” to the ground:
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1.) After a 10-day temperature drop above normal, the soil is quite warm. Soil temperatures average 50 degrees across the state — well above freezing. So snowflakes can melt first on contact, preventing clumping. But the temperature will drop. And heavy snowfall can still beat the warmest ground. Thus, there will be accumulation – it may simply remain after the flakes begin to fly.
2.) Cold air is dry air. And with dew points dropping into the teens on Monday, much of our precipitation could evaporate before even reaching the ground. This is especially true in cooler and drier northwestern New Jersey, where snowfall is expected to be rare.
3.) The temperature profile early on (still slightly above freezing along the south coast) could lead to a few hours of rain or freezing. Snow does not accumulate as quickly as snow. (Of course, the rain isn’t accumulating at all.) So we can’t call this storm “all snow.”
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Now that that major hesitation is out of the way, let’s break down each region of the state as depicted on my snow map.
The latest forecast for snow is Sunday evening into Monday, starting Sunday morning. (Dan Zarrow, Townsquare Media)
—South coast (“The Sweet Spot”)… The place of the heaviest rain clusters and the longest snowfall. Here I settled on an estimate of 4 to 8 inches. Anything with a 4+ can be plowed and shoveled. And I consider 6+ a big, big storm.
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– Rest of South Jersey (“Unknown Zone”)… This will be the area most sensitive to the “swing” of the storm track. I’m predicting 3 to 6 inches of snow accumulation here. A period of moderate to heavy snow is expected – which end of that range is more likely will depend on how long it lasts and how far north.
—I-295 and I-195 corridors (“Unwanted Snow”)… It will take some time for snowdrifts to reach this part of the state. And the snow sticks longer. But I think there is still enough evidence to point to a “minor” snow event, with 1, 2 or 3 inches on the ground. Note: This is during the daytime, so travel conditions may still be difficult.
— Middle States (“Don’t Expect Too Much”)…
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